The Ministry of National Defense maintains the stance that “South Korea is not obligated to participate in a contingency in Taiwan.” The presence of the US Forces in Korea is primarily focused on maintaining readiness against North Korea, aligned with the geographical situation of the Korean Peninsula, making the likelihood of their involvement in the Taiwan Strait low. However, it’s been analyzed that the Taiwan situation could trigger a series of events including disputes in the South China Sea and large-scale provocations from North Korea, potentially dragging the Korean Peninsula into a crisis. Following the commitment made by the leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan on the 18th, stating that they would “consult with each other in the event of a threat to any of their nations,” there are expectations that the three countries could engage in discussions related to the rapidly changing situations in Taiwan that directly affects their security interests. A former high-ranking official from the ROK-United States Combined Forces Command mentioned, “In case of an emergency in Taiwan, there is a significant possibility that China may incite provocations from North Korea towards South Korea,” and added, “The United States Forces stationed in Korea will collaborate with the South Korean military to defend against such surprise provocations.”
A spokesperson from the Ministry of National Defense stated to this newspaper on the 21st, “The government is not currently reviewing options for participation in a Taiwan contingency or related matters,” and continued, “However, the government is closely monitoring the situation around Taiwan and preparing various measures to maintain national defense readiness.” The South Korean government has a non-diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and has not entered into mutual defense agreements. A military official also mentioned, “Our military is not obligated to participate in Taiwan’s contingencies, and there has been no consideration of any form of support for Taiwan.”
However, experts emphasize that “Korea must also prepare for emergency situations.” Despite attempting to distance itself from the Taiwan situation, Korea cannot simply observe from a distance due to its proximity to the major countries involved. Some speculate that, as a result of the agreement reached during the recent South Korea-United States-Japan summit, Korea could engage in joint actions with the U.S. and Japan in response to the Taiwan crisis. As the Taiwan crisis directly affects our national security, this agreement might actually strengthen our position and grant us a more influential voice. Park Yong-han, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), stated, “The Taiwan Strait crisis will have serious repercussions not only on Northeast and Southeast Asia but also on global politics, economy, and industries,” adding that “since it will also impact our national security significantly, we need to actively prepare countermeasures.”
In the event of a crisis in Taiwan, the issue of conflict between China and ASEAN countries over territorial disputes in the South China Sea would also pose a threat to South Korea. Several ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, have defense cooperation agreements with South Korea, including the purchase of light combat aircraft. An official from the Defense Acquisition Program Administration said, “In the event of an emergency, many countries in the South China Sea are likely to side with the U.S. and Japan and provide logistical support, and many of them are operating Korean weaponry, so we may have to assist these countries.” A former high-ranking official from the ROK-United States Combined Forces Command stated, “In the event of a Taiwan crisis, China is likely to instigate North Korea to provoke a confrontation with South Korea. The United States Forces in Korea will focus on defending against such surprise provocations alongside the South Korean military.”
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