As Japan announced that it will begin releasing contaminated water from Fukushima on the 24th, it is expected that South Korean waters will be affected by the contaminated water’s influence approximately 4 to 5 years later. The scientific community believes that if Japan properly processes and discharges the Fukushima contaminated water as planned, it should have minimal impact on our waters. The government also stated that there are no scientific or technical issues with Japan’s discharge measures. However, they have plans to closely monitor the situation and manage safety to ensure that the water is released as planned in the future.
◇ Water Inflow Expected In 4~5 Years
Japan currently plans to release 1.34 million tons of contaminated water stored at the Fukushima nuclear power plant over a period of 30 years. Since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, rainwater and groundwater have been seeping into the plant, leading to the continuous generation of radioactive contaminated water. The current storage capacity within the nuclear power plant site is up to 98 percent full. Japan’s stance is to use the Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) to remove radioactive substances and then release the water once it is confirmed that 69 types of radioactive substances are below the standard limit. Additionally, tritium, a radioactive substance that cannot be filtered out by ALPS, is planned to be diluted to a concentration of 1,500 becquerels (Bq) per liter (L) of seawater. This is one-seventh of the level specified in the World Health Organization’s drinking water standards. The treated contaminated water, after being confirmed to be below the standard limits, is scheduled to be released through an underground tunnel located one kilometer away from the nuclear power plant site.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated in its final report last month that Japan’s discharge plan is valid. According to the report, if the radioactive substances are below the standard limit, Japan’s release of contaminated water won’t have a significant impact on the surrounding environment or human health. However, the key factor is how quickly Japan responds to unexpected situations, such as if the ALPS system fails to function properly. The South Korean government mentioned that they will immediately request Japan to halt the discharge if there are any deviations from the planned process, even if they are minor. To facilitate this, Japan has implemented emergency stop valves and other measures to halt the discharge in case of abnormal situations.
◇ One Ten-thousandth Level of Impact After Ten Years
Although South Korea is located to the west of Japan, the discharge from Fukushima originates on the eastern side of Japan. The released contaminated water spreads into the Pacific Ocean and takes a significant journey before eventually circling back toward the Korean Peninsula. This is due to the North Equatorial Current near the Pacific Ocean coastal countries and the Kuroshio Current near Japan, which directs the water flow into our waters. According to a tritium dispersion simulation conducted by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and the Korea Institute of Ocean Science & Technology in February, it is anticipated that some of the discharged water will enter Korean waters two years after release, with the tritium concentration being only around one millionth of the nearby area’s concentration. Even when significant inflow into the waters near the Korean Peninsula occurs approximately 4 to 5 years after the release, the impact of tritium remains minimal. The simulation indicates that even after 10 years, the influence on the average tritium concentration in domestic waters is estimated to be only around one ten-thousandth of the level. This level of detection is practically difficult. Simulations conducted by the First Institute of Oceanography in China and researchers at Qinghua University have produced similar results to those of domestic researchers.
In its final report last month, the IAEA also anticipated that tritium levels beyond 3 kilometers from the discharge point would be at natural levels. Specifically, the IAEA believed that even in the event of a pipe or tank malfunction causing the release of ALPS-treated contaminated water without seawater dilution, there wouldn’t be significant issues. The IAEA stated that even assuming prolonged and substantial consumption of seafood, the radiation exposure from radioactive substances would be less than one-hundredth of the annual natural background radiation.
In reality, there hasn’t been a significant change in the radiation concentration in the waters near South Korea after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011. At the time of the Fukushima disaster, large amounts of radioactive materials exceeding standards were directly released into the ocean. However, this current discharge process has undergone treatment in Japan, making the potential impact on South Korea much less significant compared to the time of the disaster. Scientists believe that the current discharge is expected to have a far smaller impact on domestic waters than during the time of the accident.
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