As South Korea experiences sweltering heat with daytime temperatures exceeding 32-33°C nationwide, the recommencement of operations at manufacturing plants, which had paused for summer vacations, has triggered warnings about power supply shortages.
Following a record-high summer power demand on Aug. 5, there are increasing expectations that this record will be broken again. The reserve margin, which refers to the extra generating capacity available to meet unexpected power demand or to compensate for power plant outages and serves as a warning indicator of a power crisis, has fallen to single digits for the first time in two years.
With Seoul experiencing hotter temperatures than Bangkok, the abnormal weather patterns hitting South Korea have led to a surge in demand for cooling electricity, exacerbating the tight power supply situation. In this context, the previous government’s phase-out of nuclear energy, which led to delays in power plant construction, is seen as an ongoing challenge.
According to the Korea Power Exchange, the maximum power demand on Aug. 6, reached 91.8 GW (gigawatts) at 7 PM.
Given the electricity consumption pattern that increases with ongoing heatwaves, it is expected that this week might see a new record, surpassing the previous high of 94.5 GW recorded in Dec. 2022.
Particularly, while temperatures typically ease by the third week of August, this year, daytime temperatures in Seoul and other metropolitan areas are projected to remain above 30°C, raising concerns about a power supply crisis.
Amidst the surge in power demand for AI and cooling, the delay in constructing power facilities amounting to 10 GW, including nuclear plants, is expected to significantly impact industrial competitiveness.
In fact, S. Korea’s summer power consumption has been steadily increasing.
The peak summer power demand, which was 89.1 GW in Aug. 2020, rose to 93.6 GW in Aug. 2023 and reached 93.8 GW on the 5 of this month, showing a consistent annual increase. In four years, demand has grown equivalent to more than three new 1.4 GW-class nuclear reactors.
The peak power demand exceeding 93 GW represents a sharp increase of about 20 GW compared to the maximum demand of 73.1 GW recorded in January 2011. At that time, the supply capacity was 77.1 GW, leaving a reserve margin of just 4 GW. In 2012, the reserve margin was 4 GW, and in 2013 it was 4.2 GW, indicating little leeway.
However, while peak power demand has increased by about 20 GW, the supply capacity of the nation has also grown by about 25 GW, providing more leeway in recent times.
During this period, several new reactors began commercial operations, including Shin Kori Units 1 and 2 (in 2011 and 2012), Shin Wolsong Units 1 and 2 (in 2012 and 2015), Saeul Units 1 and 2 (in 2016 and 2019), and Shin Hanul Units 1 and 2 (in 2022 and 2024). Additionally, there has been a significant increase in the use of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and renewable energy sources like solar power.
Nevertheless, in a situation where power demand is rapidly increasing due to the spread of AI and increased air conditioner use caused by abnormal temperatures, the burden of delayed operation of facilities amounting to 10 GW due to the phase-out of nuclear and coal-fired power is growing.
Professor Park Ju-heon of Dongduk Women’s University stated, “Since the rotating blackouts on Sept. 15, 2011, efforts over the past decade have focused on increasing supply capacity to manage power demand. However, the policy to phase out nuclear energy is now causing concerns about the stability of future power supplies.”
