Samsung Electronics is bracing for an even more challenging year ahead, with Chinese chipmakers aggressively expanding into the general-purpose semiconductor market, potential tariff hikes under a second Trump administration, and domestic policy gridlock clouding the outlook for its semiconductor business. Despite reshuffling its semiconductor leadership this year, the South Korean tech giant has yet to outline a clear strategy for the upcoming year.
Analysts have been lowering Samsung Electronics’ earnings forecast for next year. The average operating profit forecast for Samsung in 2025 stands at 40.48 trillion won ($30 billion), down 36.3% from August’s projection of 63.59 trillion won, according to market tracker FnGuide on Dec. 30.
To reverse this trend, Samsung must deliver tangible results in artificial intelligence chips, particularly in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The company also needs policy support, such as the K-Chips Act, which exempts research and development workers from Korea’s 52-hour workweek cap.
The most pressing challenge comes from Chinese competitors flooding the general-purpose DRAM market with products at lower prices. Companies like ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) are offering DRAM chips at nearly half the price of Samsung’s products. In November, the average price of general-purpose DRAM for PCs fell 20.6% month-on-month to $1.35. Market research firm TrendForce predicts China’s DRAM production will increase 25% next year, pushing down prices even further.
“The DRAM and NAND markets will face significant headwinds next year,” said Lee Seung-woo, head of research at Eugene Investment & Securities. “Samsung’s operating profit for next year is expected to fall to 33 trillion won, lower than this year’s estimate.”
Some analysts anticipate Samsung’s operating profit rising from 35 trillion won this year to 40 trillion won next year. Others, including Eugene Investment & Securities, predict a decline, arguing that while the semiconductor market is set for a recovery due to the global AI boom, Samsung is likely to miss out without progress in AI chips.
The return of a second Trump administration in January is another looming risk. The Trump administration’s protectionist tariff policies could drive up prices of Samsung’s memory chips and weaken demand for smartphones and PCs equipped with its chips.
Analysts have slashed Samsung’s operating profit forecast by roughly 20% in the two months since President-elect Donald Trump won the presidential election. Estimates for next year’s operating profit vary widely, ranging from a high of 55 trillion won to a low of 24 trillion won.
The AI chip market is expected to maintain robust growth next year, but Samsung has yet to demonstrate a technological edge over rivals like SK Hynix. Samsung’s long-awaited supply of HBM3E chips to Nvidia has also been delayed to next year.
At home, the pending K-Chips Act, which seeks to exempt semiconductor R&D personnel from the country’s 52-hour workweek, remains in legislative limbo. Chipmakers believe lifting the workweek cap for R&D would help them boost their technological edge, but opposition parties argue that passing the law would undermine the broader 52-hour workweek system. The exemption would apply to only about 7,000 employees, or roughly 9% of Samsung’s 75,000 semiconductor workforce.
