SK Hynix is on the brink of potentially overtaking Samsung Electronics in operating profit this year, signaling a historic shift in the domestic semiconductor landscape. Analysts estimate that SK Hynix’s operating profit surpassed that of Samsung’s chip division last year, and is now set to outstrip its rival across the entire business. Samsung and SK Hynix are each the world’s first and second-largest memory chipmakers.
SK Hynix announced on Jan. 23 that it posted a record 66.19 trillion won ($46 billion) in revenue and an all-time high of 23.47 trillion won ($16 billion) in operating profit last year. Samsung’s chip division recorded an estimated 15 trillion won in operating profit last year. For the first time, SK Hynix has surpassed Samsung in operating profit.
Analysts project SK Hynix’s operating profit this year will be on par with Samsung’s total operating profit. Forecasts from 36 domestic and foreign securities firms indicate that SK Hynix’s average operating profit this year will reach 34.69 trillion won, just shy of Samsung’s 37.246 trillion won. The operating profit gap between the two chipmakers is expected to narrow from 9.26 trillion won last year to 2.3 trillion won this year. Some firms, including NH Investment & Securities, predict that SK Hynix’s operating profit could surpass Samsung’s in 2025.
Although these are merely projections, current trends suggest this marks the narrowest operating profit gap between the two companies. The last time the two companies' operating profits were this close was 1994, when Samsung Electronics posted 1.44 trillion won and SK Hynix—then known as Hyundai Electronics—reported 658.8 billion won. The gap reached its second-smallest in 1996, at 2.0692 trillion won, before widening significantly in subsequent decades, peaking at 39.923 trillion won in 2017 as Samsung solidified its market dominance.
SK Hynix has been closing in on Samsung with its leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a crucial component of generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The company has maintained a technological edge in the HBM market with its fifth-generation HBM3E, which it supplies to U.S. tech giant Nvidia. While general-purpose memory chip prices have been sluggish, demand for HBM has surged, boosting SK Hynix’s profitability.
Taking such trends into account, analysts have slashed Samsung Electronics’ operating profit forecast by around 15 trillion won over the past three months. SK Hynix’s forecast was revised downward by only 800 billion won.
In a recent post-earnings conference call, SK Hynix revealed that HBM sales surged 4.5-fold last year compared to the previous year. The company said its HBM3E, with 12 layers and 50% bigger capacity than the previous eight-layer chips, will account for over 50% of shipments in the first half of this year.
“Samsung Electronics may face disadvantages in both shipments and pricing if it fails to secure customers for its 12-layer HBM3E, since memory chip prices are projected to remain stagnant throughout the entire year,” said Kim Kwang-jin, an analyst at Hanwha Securities & Investment.
But analysts caution against equating SK Hynix’s performance with investment appeal. HBM sales have boosted SK Hynix shares, but in the long run, increased competition from Micron and Samsung Electronics could trigger a market correction amid a broader slowdown of the general-purpose chip market.
Long-term outlooks still favor Samsung Electronics over SK Hynix. By 2026, analysts forecast Samsung’s operating profit to reach 49.78 trillion won, compared to SK Hynix’s 38.64 trillion won.
“HBM was the differentiating factor that caused chip stocks to deviate from the usual semiconductor cycle last year,” said an asset management firm representative. “Whether this trend will continue remains unclear.”
