Global shipping rates have experienced sharp fluctuations over the past year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), a key benchmark for tracking spot rates on container shipments from Shanghai to major global ports, peaked at 3,733.8 in early July before plunging to the low 2,000s within three months. It then rebounded to around 2,500 by early January but has since declined for seven consecutive weeks, now hovering just above 1,500—less than half of last year’s peak.
At the center of these price swings is U.S. President Donald Trump. Last year’s surge in shipping rates stemmed from global carriers rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, increasing costs. Additionally, Chinese exporters accelerated shipments to the United States ahead of Trump’s inauguration, anticipating the imposition of tariffs. However, rates have since declined amid concerns over weakening global trade volumes, as newly ordered vessels continue to be delivered, coupled with Trump’s sweeping tariffs introduced since taking office in January.
Industry analysts expect volatility to persist throughout the year, with Trump’s protectionist trade policies—described as “reshoring based on his protectionist manufacturing strategy”—adding to the uncertainty.
The shipping sector is now closely monitoring Trump’s potential crackdown on China’s maritime dominance. The Wall Street Journal reported on Mar. 4 that Trump is preparing an executive order aimed at limiting China’s influence in global shipping. Citing a draft summary outlining 18 proposed measures, the report highlighted one provision that would impose docking fees on ships flying the Chinese flag or built in China when they call at U.S. ports. The revenue from these fees would be used to support the revival of the U.S. shipbuilding industry. Lee Young-joo, a researcher at Hana Securities, noted that this measure effectively amounts to a broad tariff on all imports transported via Chinese vessels. “As port fees rise, importers will be forced to explore alternative options,” Lee said.
Observers believe these measures could also have significant ramifications for China’s shipbuilding industry. According to shipping research firm Clarksons, as of last month, China accounted for 61% of global merchant ship orders, while South Korea and Japan each held 12%, followed by Europe at 5% and the United States at just 0.4%.
“Ships are long-term, capital-intensive assets, and even minor uncertainties can heavily influence shipowners’ purchasing decisions,” an industry official said.
On Mar. 4, Trump also claimed that the Panama Canal was “built for Americans” and supported a deal in which a consortium led by U.S. asset management firm BlackRock acquired a 90% stake in the Panama Ports Company (PPC) from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison.
While Trump’s efforts to curb China’s influence in shipping may benefit carriers outside the country, including South Korean firms, they also raise concerns. The growing possibility of broader tariffs could significantly dampen global trade, adding further uncertainty to the industry.
Beyond Trump’s policies, the shipping sector faces additional challenges, including a global economic slowdown led by China. The Export-Import Bank of Korea recently projected that global shipping demand will grow by no more than 3% this year. The report also highlighted that over 10% of newly built containerships exceeding 12,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) are expected to be delivered early this year, with large-scale vessel deliveries continuing throughout 2025, exerting further downward pressure on freight rates.
