“[Yoo Soo-yeon] is twenty-three and studying eco-nomics, [Park Ji-hoe] is twenty-four and focusing on international relations, and [Shim Soo-jin], at twenty-three, specializes in international commerce. All three are graduate students at Seoul National University, the top-ranking university in Korea. Articulate, ambitious, and whip-smart, they are focused on marks, graduation, and the jobs that come after graduation. Marriage? Not so much. ‘My dad encourages me to not get married... And also it’s really difficult to find the right guy. And my dad says, if you don’t find him, just don’t get married.’ As for children, ‘If I get married, I only want one child,’ [Soo-yeon] declares. The others agree. Maybe none, maybe one, but no more than one.”
This is part of the section on Korea from “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline,” written by Darrell Bricker, CEO of the public opinion research firm Ipsos Public Affairs, and John Ibbitson, a leading columnist for Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail. The two published the book in 2019. Five years have passed, but the situation in Korea has changed little. Despite the country raising alarms about aging and implementing various measures, the situation has arguably worsened. The book highlights that Korean women expect to have only one child, which is below the replacement fertility rate (2.1 children per woman). Even with more people now supporting marriage and childbirth, this means Korea’s population will inevitably decline.
In a recent Zoom interview with ChosunBiz, Bricker said, “People want to see the low birthrate issue as a market failure, but it is a cultural phenomenon,” and emphasized, “We can slow this trend down, but we cannot reverse it.” He continued, “There are still people who think this isn’t going to happen. We need to get over that and focus on what the implications are and how we’re going to deal with it.”
You included stories of people you met in Korea in your book. What led you to choose these individuals?
“Actually, my co-author John went to Seoul, and he contacted the professor interviewed in the book. Professor Cho set him up with the women he interviewed at Seoul University.”
Why did you include Korea’s case in your book alongside Canada, Japan, and Africa?
“The reason we included Korea was that even five years ago, it was pretty obvious what was going to happen when you looked at the statistics. We wanted to know more about why the birthrate is declining in Korea. It’s the same reason it’s declining everywhere in the world: our culture has changed in a way that participating in creating the next generation isn’t as big a priority as it used to be. I don’t think that John or I, or people in Korea, knew quite how serious the situation was and how fast the decline has accelerated since we wrote the book.”
In the book, the authors point out, “There is another reason for Korean women to put off marriage and motherhood: Korean men.” Millennial men insist they are more enlightened than their parents and are more willing to share domestic chores and child-raising responsibilities, but statistics tell a different story. The authors say, “Korean men spend little time on housework, and the duty of women to do housework, combined with the seniority-based wage system that penalizes women who take maternity leave, makes it even more difficult for women in Korea to have children while working.” They further argue, “This system is exacerbated by a poor national childcare policy, or the lack of such a policy, making it far harsher compared to other developed countries.”
You pointed to Korean men as one of the causes of the low birthrate in Korea, which is a rare perspective in Korea. How did you come to know about the problem of Korean men? Has your analysis changed since writing the book five years ago?
“We learned about this by talking to Korean women. John interviewed young women at Seoul National University and asked them, ‘Why are you delaying having families?’ From this, we discovered that women’s attitudes were not changing very dramatically in Korea, and men’s attitudes weren’t changing as quickly either. The role of men in childcare, particularly in doing household chores and other tasks that make it possible to have children and a family, was still pretty much a growing barrier in Korea. And I should say that this is not an issue specific to Korea. While the situation may be more extreme in Korea, this issue is pretty consistent on a global basis.”
How can South Korean men be encouraged to recognize the importance of this issue?
“The only way to change the culture is by encouraging more people to talk about it. When that happens, expectations for men will naturally shift. This is about whether men choose to take part in addressing the declining birthrate—a choice that comes with clear consequences if ignored. That said, I don’t think we should frame the declining birthrate as something caused by South Korean men’s behavior. To me, it’s more about the changing expectations of South Korean women and how they envision their futures. Many women today are expressing sentiments like, ‘I won’t live the way my grandmother did,’ ‘I want to be a corporate leader,’ or ‘I’ll live life on my own terms.’ This evolving mindset plays a significant role in shaping the birthrate.”
You have identified urbanization as another factor contributing to South Korea’s declining birthrate. Could you Q: You’ve pointed to urbanization as another factor contributing to South Korea’s declining birthrate. Can you explain?
“Urbanization empowers women and provides more access to education, and this is closely linked to lower birthrates. It’s not a phenomenon unique to South Korea—it’s happening all over the world. For example, in African countries with rising female education rates, we’re seeing some of the fastest declines in birthrates.”
On a global scale, do you see population decline as more of a positive or negative development?
“I’d describe it as more of a challenge than something positive or negative. These challenges are unprecedented, similar to what Europe experienced after the Black Death before the Renaissance. For most of the 20th century, population growth was constant, so we never seriously considered the implications of rapid aging or population decline. Now, population decline presents both opportunities and threats, but the reality is undeniable. The task ahead is preparing for it. Some people believe population decline won’t happen, but overcoming that mindset is crucial.”
Does this mean policies aimed at reversing population decline are ultimately futile?
“Despite efforts to counteract population decline through every possible initiative, the results have proven ineffective. While we can slow the rate of decline, reversing it is simply not feasible. I believe this stems from a fundamental misdiagnosis of the problem. Many view population decline as a market failure. For example, some suggest that lowering the cost of raising children would encourage more people to have them. Others argue that reducing workplace discrimination against mothers might lead women to have more children. But even if we could guarantee that raising a child wouldn’t cost a penny and that no workplace penalties would exist for becoming a mother, would that really result in women having three children?”
How should we rethink policies addressing population decline?
“The core issue we need to tackle is cultural. People no longer feel a sense of obligation to have children. They’ve concluded that the financial and personal costs simply aren’t worth it. There’s no longer a perceived duty to create the next generation. Instead, people want to live differently. While policies aimed at reducing the cost of raising children, promoting gender equality in the workplace, and supporting working mothers may help slow the decline, they won’t reverse the trend. At its heart, this is a matter of shifting values. Humanity might just become the first species to tell Charles Darwin, ‘You were wrong.’”
If policies to address population decline aren’t enough to reverse the trend, should we abandon them?
“As I’ve mentioned, the trend of population decline isn’t going to change. However, that doesn’t mean these policies aren’t worth implementing. Providing support to parents to make raising children easier or encouraging people to have more children benefits society as a whole and can help slow the rate of decline. Women should have complete freedom to make their own choices regarding childbirth. Specifically, those who want to have more children should have access to every option that enables them to do so. That said, even if everyone were to have the number of children they desire, birthrates would still continue to decline over time. This is not a problem with a simple solution.”
You’ve mentioned immigration as a way to address aging populations and population decline. If global populations are shrinking, wouldn’t immigration eventually become ineffective? Do you see it as a viable solution for South Korea?
“In the coming decades, immigration may help offset population decline to some extent. However, even countries that attract the highest numbers of immigrants are facing declining populations. For example, Canada receives many immigrants from India, China, and the Philippines, but only the Philippines maintains a birthrate above the replacement level. As India’s middle class continues to expand, it may no longer be a significant source of immigration for Canada. Currently, Africa is the only region capable of providing large numbers of immigrants while maintaining birthrates above the replacement level. This brings up the question of whether South Korea could welcome immigrants from Africa. Politically, I think this would be incredibly difficult.”
