Last year, Korea’s total fertility rate recorded 0.72, which decreased by 0.06 from the previous year. In the fourth quarter of last year, the fertility rate fell to 0.65, which is the first time it has ever fallen below 0.6. Within two years of becoming a country with a fertility rate of 0.8 in 2020, South Korea’s fertility rate hit 0.7, and it is now on the verge of falling to 0.6. Statistics Korea expects the country’s fertility rate to hit 0.68 this year, with a further drop to 0.65 next year. South Korea is the only country among the 38 OECD countries with a fertility rate of less than one, which is less than half of the OECD average of 1.58 as of 2021. Except for Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, the fertility rate marking 0.7s is unprecedented.
The total fertility rate refers to the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. For instance, if the fertility rate is 0.72, it means that 100 couples or 200 people will have 72 children. A population of 200 in the parent’s generation is reduced to a third in the child’s generation. Based on Statistics Korea’s population projections, the country’s population is expected to decrease from 51.33 million at the end of 2020 to 36.22 million in 2072. By then, half of the population will be over 63 years old. According to Oxford professor David Coleman, South Korea is at risk of becoming the first country to disappear from the earth due to population extinction.
The birthrate in South Korea has been declining and as a result, the country is experiencing an aging population, which is leading to a “shrinking society”. This is causing a decrease in the size of the workforce, leading to a drop in tax revenues and an increase in government spending on welfare and healthcare for the elderly. As fewer people are purchasing goods, the economy is losing momentum. The situation has become so severe that maternity clinics are closing due to low birthrates, and kindergartens are being turned into nursing homes. Furthermore, 157 elementary schools have registered no freshmen this year, and universities may have to shut down after middle and high schools. If this trend continues, South Korea’s future looks bleak.
