“Trump lacks an understanding of the concept of ‘alliance,’ whether it’s with South Korea, Japan, or NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). Many works will be necessary to preempt any potential issues in the South Korea-U.S. relationship once he is re-elected.”
Former National Security Council (NSC) Advisor John Bolton said in a recent video interview with Chosunilbo on April 1. Bolton claimed that Donald Trump, fundamentally a real estate agent at his core, views Korea primarily as an investment and believes that the U.S. is spending money at a loss to protect Korea.
Bolton was a key U.S. foreign security adviser during the early years of Trump’s tenure. After resigning in November 2019 due to disagreements on foreign policy with Trump, he has become a vocal anti-Trump critic. Kim Sang-joo, Vice President of the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS), also participated in the interview.
How should South Korea prepare for a possible Trump’s second term?
“I recommend following the approach taken by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who were close to Trump during his tenure. Concerned about the threats from China and North Korea, Abe spoke with Trump over the phone and played golf every chance he got. As a result, Trump began to listen to Abe. Consistent communication and persistence are key when dealing with Trump. So, in the event of Trump’s reelection, President Yoon Suk-yeol should promptly call him the day after the election and ask him for his input whenever possible, as Trump enjoys discussing his opinion. Abe and Johnson did this, and it worked.”
Will Trump converse with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in his second term? (Bolton predicted that Trump would call Kim immediately once he is re-elected).
“Trump and Kim have met three times, yet none of the meetings have produced concrete outcomes. (From watching from the sidelines) Only shortly after the 2019 North Korea- United States Hanoi summit, Trump concluded that North Korea had no intention of giving up its nuclear development. One of Trump’s problems lies in his tendency to equate diplomatic relations between nations with personal friendships with the heads. The notion that ‘I’m close to Kim Jong-un, so U.S.-North Korea relations are good’ is dangerous.”
What is particularly dangerous?
“Trump’s apparent affection for Kim Jong-un contradicts national interests. Let’s say Trump pursues another summit with Kim. People will question what the U.S. can gain from it if previous attempts failed. Trump’s eagerness for results may lead him to neglect careful analysis of the pros and cons of any U.S.-North Korea agreement. Reflecting on the 2018 Singapore summit, Trump unilaterally ended decades of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises without consulting with any of his staff, catching many off guard. Kim Jong-un reportedly smiled broadly and said it was a great idea. Who knows what extraordinary thing Trump will give up this time to show off?”
The South Korean government has begun preparing for negotiations with the Biden administration on a special measures agreement (SMA). It is a preemptive move for a possible reelection of Trump, who has called for an excessive increase in contributions from Korea. Some fear that Trump could nullify the previous agreement if he returns to power.
Could Trump overturn the agreements made by the previous administration?
“I believe it could at any time, but it is a good sign that the South Korean government’s ‘long-term view’ on regional security and alliances under the Yoon administration has gained quite a support in the U.S. (across party lines). The Yoon administration appears willing to work with allies on issues, including the threats posed by North Korea and China. South Korea and the U.S. can consider the greater threats posed in the Indo-Pacific region (such as China).
Some argue that instead of pressuring Pyongyang to denuclearize, the U.S. should recognize North Korea as a nuclear power and move toward disarmament.
“Indeed, negotiations have not stopped North Korea from developing nuclear weapons, but even if we shift to disarmament, North Korea may not adhere to proper disarmament measures. Time is running out, but the attempt at denuclearization is not over. Additionally, the precarious foundation of North Korea’s hereditary dictatorship adds another dimension to consider in the denuclearization efforts.”
Do you think Trump would be willing to allow South Korea to build its own nuclear capability if he wins a second term as president?
“It’s very likely. I know there is a growing sentiment in South Korea and Japan that they don’t trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella (deterrence of nuclear escalation) and that they need to secure their own nuclear deterrent. That’s understandable. I believe that it’s better to enhance regional stability under a U.S. nuclear umbrella, but still, we must continue to evaluate how best to respond to threats from North Korea and China. Considering the possibility of aggression from North Korea or China, it is rational to contemplate the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula.” (The United States has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea since the 1950s to deter North Korean and Chinese provocations, but withdrew them in 1991 to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.)
Will Trump make the case for withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea in the second presidency (as he did in the first term)? (The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) requires the U.S. government to maintain a minimum of 28,500 U.S. service members in South Korea.)
“The extent of the president’s authority to deploy troops remains highly controversial. While the president is the commander-in-chief, the presidency’s decision to reduce or withdraw troops from South Korea would likely face tremendous pushback and anger from lawmakers (who see South Korea as a staunch ally). Congress approved a measure aimed at preventing any U.S. president from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO without congressional approval in December last year and this passage came amid long-standing concerns that Donald Trump may try to exit the alliance if he returns to office. A similar controversy could arise over the withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea.”
American media outlets have been reporting on the list of potential staffers who will serve in a “second Trump” White House. What do you think of this?
“Trump loves to speculate about who he will pick. He likes to put potential candidates on the table and intentionally keep them on their toes. We don’t know who will be chosen. One thing for sure is that Trump’s most important criterion is “loyalty”. For Senior government figures, however, it should be loyalty to the Constitution. The president shouldn’t be afraid of his staff suggesting a course of action that he can’t think of off the top of his head. No president has ever been successful when he is surrounded by people saying “yes” to everything he says. I see this loyalty issue as a potential problem in Trump’s second term.”
“South Korea should be at the center of a group of countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including India, Australia, Japan, and the United States, so the country had better consider creating a “Quint” that includes those countries,” said Bolton. He also added that South Korea’s evolving engagement in the economic and security spheres is a viable option as it can help strengthen regional security.
“If Trump wins a second term, I hope that President Yoon and the South Korean government can effectively communicate these initiatives to him, potentially garnering his support before any congratulatory call from Kim Jong-un. he said, “so that he understands how dangerous it is to belittle South Korea.”
