The population of South Korean nationals residing in the country has dropped below 50 million for the first time in six years, largely due to low birth rates. Projections suggest that by 2042, this figure may not even reach 47 million. According to data released by Statistics Korea on April 11, the population of South Korean nationals decreased from 50,021,000 in 2022 to 49,847,000 in 2023. After surpassing the 50 million mark in 2018 with a population of 50,024,000, the figure had remained in the 50 million range for five years before dropping to the 40 million range last year.
In contrast, the number of foreigners residing in the country for three months or longer increased from 1,652,000 to 1,865,000 during the same period. Due to the greater increase in the foreign population compared to the decline in the Korean population, the total population of the country reached 51,713,000, an increase of 40,000 from the previous year.
Statistics Korea forecasts that the Korean population, currently at 49,730,000, will decrease by approximately 6% to 46,780,000 by 2042. Meanwhile, the pace of aging is expected to accelerate. The proportion of elderly individuals aged 65 and over among Koreans is expected to exceed 19.7% this year and surpass 30% in 2034, reaching over 35% by 2040. The proportion of those aged 75 and over is set to skyrocket from 8.2% this year to 20.1% in 2042, meaning that one in every five Koreans will be over 75 years old.
On the other hand, the trend of foreigners staying in Korea is on the rise. The number of foreign residents in South Korea, currently at 2.02 million, is expected to exceed 2.5 million in 2034 and reach 2.85 million by 2042.
Particularly alarming is the expected decline in the proportion of the working-age population (15-64 years old) from the current 70% to 55% by 2042.
Statistics Korea predicts that the Korean working-age population will decrease by 26% from 34,540,000 this year to 25,730,000 in 2042. This represents more than four times the overall decrease rate of Koreans (6%) during the same period. The proportion of the Korean working-age population is forecasted to decrease from 69.5% this year to 55% by 2042. This means, in 18 years, only about half of Koreans will be in their prime working ages. The percentage of those younger than 14 years old is expected to be 8.1%, while those aged 65 and over will comprise 36.9% of the population.
As the working-age population decreases, the burden of supporting the young and elderly among them will also sharply increase. The number of dependents (children and elderly) per 100 working-age population, known as the “total dependency ratio,” is expected to nearly double from 44 this year to 81.8 in 2042. This implies that one person of working age will have to support an average of 0.8 elderly or children. Particularly, the elderly dependency ratio is expected to reach 67 per 100, meaning that three working-age individuals will have to support two elderly persons.
