Following the inauguration of Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te, who has long advocated for Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence, concerns about potential conflict between China and Taiwan have intensified. Amid such concerns, experts in Washington, D.C. analyzed that China could potentially “take over” Taiwan without resorting to war. China could effectively achieve this through repeated low-intensity threats, spreading pro-China public opinion in Taiwan and slowly breaking apart U.S.-Taiwan relations, according to their so-called “war-game” simulation.
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a center-right think tank, and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an American nonprofit research group specializing in military strategy, recently released a joint 115-page report containing this analysis. AEI and ISW stated that they reached this conclusion after conducting hypothetical scenarios in the form of “war games,” or war simulations, from the perspective of Chinese authorities over the past year. The report suggests that Beijing’s ultimate goal is to sign a “peace agreement” with Taiwan and establish a political body, such as a “Peaceful Cross-Strait Commission,” to gain de facto control of the island.
According to the report, Beijing might implement its “Taiwan domination without war” strategy in four phases from May 2024, when Lai takes office, to 2028 when the next President is elected. The report outlines the following hypothetical scenario for how China might effectively control Taiwan.
Phase 1: Disruption and Unrest
By the end of next year, China will create unrest in Taiwanese society by closing air and shipping routes around Taiwan, cutting undersea cables, and engaging in electronic warfare. “The loss of access to clean water or sudden energy cuts [due to Chinese interference] could agitate Taiwanese society and cause government approval ratings to drop,” the report said. This phase seeks to build public opinion that Lai’s anti-China rhetoric offends Beijing, increasing risks for Taiwanese residents.
Phase 2: Undermining U.S.-Taiwan Relations
China’s next step involves disrupting U.S.-Taiwan relations. The U.S. recently strengthened ties with Taiwan amid increasing U.S.-China tensions. Beijing’s goal is to amplify anti-American sentiment in Taiwan by spreading the notion that the turmoil around Taiwan is caused by the U.S., not China. The report suggests that social media platforms, including TikTok - a video-sharing app owned by a Chinese company and used by 170 million Americans - will fuel isolationist sentiments supporting minimizing intervention in other countries’ conflicts. This isolationist stance aligns with the “America First” policy promoted by former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for the upcoming November U.S. presidential election.
Phase 3: Raising Military Threats
The third phase involves gradually increasing the intensity of military threats, such as a naval blockade, while simultaneously spreading the idea within Taiwan that “peace through rapprochement with China” is preferable. “During this phase, North Korea could be induced to conduct nuclear tests and provocations to distract neighboring countries such as South Korea and Japan from the Taiwan issue,” the report said.
Phase 4: Establishing De Facto Control
Once public opinion that “Taiwan is better off at peace with China” in Taiwan and the U.S. is solidified, the report states that China will move on to the fourth phase. In the final phase, China aims to sign a peace agreement and establish a peace committee to finalize China’s control. The report compares this scenario to Hong Kong’s transition after the 1997 handover, where promises of “one country, two systems” eventually led to the erosion of Hong Kong’s liberal democracy through crackdowns on free speech. Taiwan could follow a similar path.
“Beijing plans to frustrate so-called ‘separatists’ in Taiwan, backed by the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies, and transfer power to pro-China politicians who will fully comply with China’s demands under the guise of ‘cross-strait peace,’” the report stated.
This “Taiwan reunification” scenario has implications for South Korea, which faces nuclear and missile threats from North Korea. “China, North Korea, Russia, and others continue to provoke one after the other, yet they are all outwardly calling for ‘peace,’” said a U.S. congressional official. “We must recognize and respond to the dangers of the psychological and public opinion warfare being waged by China and others.”
Dan Blumenthal, a Senior Fellow at AEI and one of the report’s authors, reportedly discussed the report’s findings and potential U.S. responses with Republican U.S. Representative John Moolenaar and Democratic U.S. Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi. The report warned, “If the U.S. government focuses solely on preparing for the possibility of Chinese military provocations, it may fail to adequately respond to the “hybrid coercion strategy” - a mix of high- and low-intensity tactics - that China is already covertly pursuing.”
