North Korea has reportedly deployed a significant number of troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, sparking concerns that the isolated nation may gain valuable combat experience in exchange for Russian military equipment and technology to advance its modernization efforts.
According to South Korean analysts and officials cited by The New York Times, the conflict in Ukraine is providing North Korea’s military with “opportunities to test its new weapons and its officers’ preparedness for modern warfare.” The report highlights fears that North Korea, which has not engaged in large-scale conflict since the Korean War more than 70 years ago, is gaining experience in modern hybrid warfare, including the use of short-range ballistic missiles like the KN-23, drones, and social media strategies.
While North Korean forces may be gaining crucial combat experience, the South Korean military has not seen action since the Vietnam War, raising concerns about its preparedness. Military sources report that even frontline units in the Forward Edge of Battle Area (FEBA) are struggling to maintain proper training.
FEBA units are a critical part of South Korea’s layered defense strategy, positioned 5 to 10 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). These units, typically consisting of reconnaissance, artillery, and intelligence battalions, are responsible for engaging North Korean forces in the event of a full-scale conflict. As Guard Post and General Outpost units buy time for South Korean forces to mobilize, FEBA units would mount a counteroffensive. The lack of proper training in these units is seen as undermining South Korea’s overall military strength.
Compounding the issue are significant manpower shortages within South Korea’s frontline units. A FEBA unit in Gangwon Province, equipped with K-21 infantry fighting vehicles, frequently has to borrow personnel from neighboring units during training exercises. In some cases, a shortage of infantry has led to the cancellation of combat drills. A former master sergeant from a mechanized infantry division in Gangwon Province said that at times, several armored vehicles were left idle during training due to personnel shortages.
“There’s a joke that if a war breaks out, some of the armored vehicles will just have to be abandoned,” he said.
South Korea’s declining population is exacerbating these challenges. According to a 2022 estimate by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, military personnel is expected to drop from around 500,000 today to 300,000 by the 2040s. The country’s active-duty force, which stood at 690,000 in 2002, is projected to shrink to 390,000 by 2039 and to 330,000 by 2043.
The exodus of junior officers is further straining military resources. The number of resignations within the first five years of service jumped from 48 in 2023 to 122 in 2024. Non-commissioned officers (NCOs) are also leaving at an alarming rate, with more than twice as many NCOs leaving the service in 2024 (3,170) compared to new recruits (1,280). In 2023, the army faced a shortfall of 550 officers and 4,790 NCOs, raising concerns that South Korea may have advanced weaponry but insufficient personnel to operate it.
The shortage of NCOs has particularly impacted the operation of K9 self-propelled howitzers, of which South Korea has around 1,100. At current staffing levels, up to 300 of these howitzers could be left inoperable due to a lack of trained operators. The K9, essential for countering North Korea’s long-range artillery, has a range of 40 kilometers and can fire up to nine rounds per minute, traveling at speeds of up to 60 kilometers per hour.
“We often have to borrow personnel from other units due to a shortage of crew members for the howitzers,” an artillery officer in Gyeonggi Province said.
The army plans to reduce the K9′s crew size from five to three, but this has sparked concerns that losing even one crew member could render the artillery inoperable. Military experts are calling for accelerated research and deployment of advanced systems, such as drones, and a shift away from the current border-focused defense strategy. Some have also suggested reducing the number of high-ranking officers and transforming the South Korean military into a more combat-oriented force.
