The number of babies born in South Korea from January to September this year surpassed last year’s figures, marking the first year-on-year rise since 2015. The country, struggling with a demographic crisis marked by one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, could see a rebound in childbirths for the first time in nearly a decade.
According to Statistics Korea, 178,600 babies were born in the first nine months of this year, a 0.7% rise from the 177,315 births recorded during the same period last year. While births lagged slightly behind last year’s figures up until August, a notable uptick in September saw 25,590 babies born, up 10.1% year-on-year. The rebound marks the first double-digit monthly growth in 13 years since January 2011.
This rise in births pushed the total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, to 0.76 in the third quarter, up from 0.71 a year ago. This is the first third-quarter increase since 2013. The Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy predicts the annual total fertility rate will rise from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.74 in 2024—the first annual increase in nine years.
The rebound is attributed to a rise in marriages after the COVID-19 pandemic. Couples who postponed weddings during the pandemic have since tied the knot and started families, which led to more births, according to Statistics Korea. The number of marriages has been steadily climbing, with September seeing a 19% year-on-year growth—the largest increase since marriage statistics were first compiled in 1981. This suggests that the upward trajectory in births may continue into next year and beyond.
In a country plagued by one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, leading to bleak forecasts such as Tesla founder Elon Musk’s comment that “at the current birth rate, South Korea’s population will shrink to one-third of its current size,” recent trends are offering a glimmer of hope.
Based on third-quarter data, South Korean couples take an average of 2.45 years to have their first child after marriage. This means the ongoing wave of pandemic marriages, which spanned from August 2022 to March 2023, could continue boosting births through the latter half of 2025.
Whether this upward trend will continue beyond that depends on the sustained marriage growth. September recorded 15,368 marriages, an 18.8% increase from a year ago and the highest figure for the month since 2019. Year-on-year monthly marriage growth rates have been rising for six straight months since April’s 24.6% jump. This raises the possibility of two consecutive years of annual marriage growth, following a modest 1% increase last year.
Quarterly marriage growth rates have also been rising this year, from 0.4% in the first quarter to 17.1% in the second quarter and a record 24% in the third quarter.
