Despite President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment following the Dec. 3 martial law crisis, recent polls show declining support for the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). Meanwhile, support for the ruling People Power Party (PPP), which initially plummeted after the crisis, has been steadily climbing, narrowing the gap between the two major parties. Analysts attribute this shift to the consolidation of conservative support and a drift of centrist voters away from the DPK, driven by the party’s aggressive political moves against Yoon.
The DPK’s actions—impeaching both President Yoon and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, coupled with strong rhetoric regarding the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) investigation into Yoon—appear to have contributed to the trend. Questions over the legality of the CIO’s investigation and allegations of undue pressure from the DPK have further influenced public opinion.
On Jan. 8, Yoon’s office challenged the CIO to either prosecute or seek an arrest warrant without further investigation, a move widely seen as an effort to rally his base.
A Hangil Research and Kukinews survey conducted from Jan. 4 to 6 among 1,013 adults found support for the DPK at 37% and for the PPP at 36.3%, a difference of just 0.7 percentage points, within the margin of error. Among self-identified moderates, 34.2% supported the DPK, compared to 23.5% for the PPP. Among unaffiliated voters, 30.8% leaned toward the PPP, while 22.2% backed the DPK.
Compared to the 2016 impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, the current gap between party support is notably smaller. At that time, Gallup Korea found the DPK polling in the 40% range, while the Saenuri Party, the PPP’s predecessor, was in the low teens.
Separate polls by Realmeter and Economy Business Newspaper show a downward trend for the DPK over the past three weeks, with the PPP gaining momentum. A Realmeter poll conducted from Jan. 2 to 3 among 1,001 adults placed PPP support at 34.4%, up from 25.7% in mid-December. During the same period, the DPK’s support dropped from 52.4% to 45.2%.
Experts suggest the DPK’s declining support stems from perceived overreach during the impeachment crisis. After impeaching Yoon, the DPK moved to impeach Han Duck-soo, who was acting as president during the martial law period. A Dec. 29–30 Ace Research and Newsis poll showed the PPP at 35.7% and the DPK at 40.4%, within the margin of error.
Lee Jun-han, a professor at Incheon National University, said, “The DPK’s unprecedented decision to impeach the acting president may have fueled concerns about its capacity to govern.”
Inflammatory remarks by DPK leaders, including statements such as “Yoon will face the death penalty” and “Arrest him even if it costs a bullet,” have likely alienated moderate voters. Political consultant Park Sung-min noted, “The DPK bears significant responsibility for pushing the political situation to this point with its unchecked power,” adding, “Unlike during the 2017 impeachment of Park Geun-hye, the DPK is no longer seen as a viable alternative by centrist or unaffiliated voters.”
Yoon’s refusal to comply with the CIO’s summons or a potential arrest warrant appears to reflect an awareness of these shifting dynamics. However, political analyst Yoon Tae-gon cautioned against overinterpreting the data. “There may be oversampling of conservative respondents in the surveys, and it’s unclear whether the PPP’s rising support will translate to gains among moderates or independents,” he said.
