The incoming Trump administration may consider redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea and expanding nuclear-sharing arrangements as part of a broader strategy to pressure China, experts said at a conference co-hosted by the Brookings Institution, the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy (KRINS), and The Chosunilbo on Jan. 8.
Ham Hyeongpil, a senior research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), cited a recent research paper by U.S. Air Force Major David Phillips. “Even active-duty U.S. military personnel have advocated for redeploying non-strategic nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula as the best course of action for ensuring regional stability from a U.S. perspective,” Ham said.
The paper, which earned the U.S. Strategic Command’s 2024 Deterrence Writing Award, estimated that deploying strategic nuclear weapons at the U.S. Air Force 8th Fighter Wing unit at the Kunsan Air Base to enable strike capabilities using F-35A fighter jets would cost approximately $3 billion. Considering the time required to prepare the necessary facilities and equipment for nuclear missions, the study suggested 2031 as a potential deployment timeline.
Andrew Yeo, senior fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Asia Policy Studies, said Trump might even authorize South Korea to retain nuclear weapons to strengthen its deterrence capabilities against North Korea. Yeo added that such a move could ease public anxiety in South Korea regarding the U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
However, geopolitical stability in the region remains fragile. Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, noted that the South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, once robust under the Yoon, Biden, and Kishida administrations, has taken a “dark turn” in recent months. KRINS director Han Min-goo echoed these concerns, warning, “Instability in South Korea’s leadership during this critical period when the foreign policy direction of the second Trump administration is being shaped raises concerns about the future of the U.S.-ROK alliance.”
Despite these challenges, experts stressed the importance of maintaining strong trilateral security cooperation and strengthening the U.S.-ROK alliance for regional peace and stability. “When addressing the North Korean nuclear issue under the Trump administration, experts from both countries must prevent the U.S. from unilaterally imposing its stance on South Korea,” said former UN Ambassador Kim Sook.
Klingner also recommended increasing the scale and frequency of joint military exercises involving South Korea, the U.S., and Japan and even considering joint ground force drills.
During his presidential campaign, Trump referred to South Korea as a “money machine” and said the long-time U.S. ally should pay $10 billion annually for defense costs—ten times the amount agreed upon last year. But experts argued that it would be difficult for the U.S. to enforce such a demand given its strategic focus on countering China. “It’s crucial to demonstrate to Trump that South Korea is already contributing sufficiently to defense spending, Yeo said.
Experts were also skeptical about the likelihood of U.S.-North Korea talks this year. Yeo predicted that Trump would prioritize ending conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East while focusing on competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region. “The possibility of U.S.-North Korea dialogue this year seems low,” Yeo said.
Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), added, “North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has little interest in freezing, limiting, or reducing his nuclear arsenal.” Given North Korea’s deepening ties with Russia and its growing nuclear capabilities, Pyongyang has little incentive to return to negotiations.
