A recent poll revealed that support for the ruling People Power Party (PPP) has narrowly overtaken the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DP), albeit within the margin of error. The reversal is the first in three months since support for the DP (28%) surpassed the PPP (27%) in the second week of October last year, according to a joint survey conducted by research firms Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research International, and Hankook Research on Jan. 16.
This reflects a shift in public opinion. Voter support for the PPP, which had plummeted following the December 3 martial law crisis, rebounded in late December, while support for the DP has steadily declined.
A National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted via phone interviews with 1,005 men and women from Jan. 13 to 15 showed the following party support ratings: 35% for the People Power Party, 33% for the Democratic Party, 8% for the Rebuilding Korea Party, 3% for the Reform Party, and 1% for the Progressive Party. Around 17% of respondents said they had no preferred party or were “unsure.”
Additionally, 48% of respondents said a candidate from the opposition party should win the next presidential elections, compared to 41% who supported a ruling party candidate. If an early presidential election were to take place, 36% of respondents said they would vote for a DP candidate, while 33% leaned toward a PPP candidate, both within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points).
Political analysts attribute this change to growing public dissatisfaction with the DP’s recent course of action following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s unexpected martial law debacle. Instead of working to stabilize the chaos, the DP passed impeachment motions for President Yoon and former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials' (CIO’s) attempts at arresting President Yoon also raised concerns that the DP was using its dominance in the parliament for political maneuvers.
Poll results show that the PPP had maintained a slight lead over the DP within the margin of error until late September. This trend was reversed in October, and by the third week of December, after the martial law declaration, the DP had widened the gap to a significant 13 percentage points, leading with 39% support, while the PPP trailed at 26%.
However, the gap began to close in late December, narrowing to 4 percentage points in the second week of January (DP 36%, PPP 32%), and ultimately reversed in the latest survey (PPP 35%, DPK 33%).
Experts cite the DP-led impeachment of Prime Minister Han on Dec. 27 as one of the focal points when centrist voters turned their backs on the opposition party. “The impeachment of Prime Minister Han received criticism from centrist voters, as it was perceived as the opposition abusing its political dominance,” said a political analyst.
The gap between those favoring “regime change” (48%) and “regime reconstruction” (41%) for the next presidential election has narrowed by nine percentage points compared to the previous week’s survey (53% vs. 37%). Similarly, the gap in voting intentions for DP (36%) and PPP (33%) candidates has narrowed from 12 percentage points to just three percentage points over the past week.
The DP-led impeachment investigation committee’s decision to remove insurrection charges from the grounds for impeaching President Yoon also faced public backlash. The DP’s plans to combat the “spread of fake news” on the messenger app KakaoTalk has sparked controversy over alleged “KakaoTalk censorship,” further alienating centrist voters.
Recent attempts to arrest President Yoon also divided public opinion, reigniting support for the ruling party. “President Yoon’s arrest has triggered a shift in public perception,” said Yoon Tae-gon, a political analyst. “DP leader Lee Jae-myung’s many legal risks have come to light, prompting a more critical evaluation of his leadership, particularly in the context of recent impeachment proceedings and his handling of the party’s dominance.”
