Unprecedented heavy snowfall is expected across South Korea during the Lunar New Year holiday, a rare phenomenon as the holiday usually occurs after the coldest part of winter in early January. This year’s snowfall could make it the snowiest Lunar New Year in 30 years, according to weather officials.
The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts up to 25 centimeters (10 inches) of snow in the Seoul metropolitan area on Jan. 27 and 28. Significant accumulation is also expected in other regions: Gangwon Province is forecast to receive 10 to 30 centimeters, the Chungcheong region 5 to 20 centimeters, the Jeolla region 5 to 30 centimeters, Gyeongsang Province 1 to 15 centimeters, and Jeju Island 3 to 30 centimeters. The heaviest snowfall is anticipated on Jan. 28, as cold air from the north interacts with the warmer waters of the West Sea (Yellow Sea), creating large snow clouds.
While snowfall during the Lunar New Year holiday is not uncommon, such heavy accumulation is rare. Over the past 30 years, Seoul has seen snow during the holiday 12 times. The heaviest recorded snowfall was 5.1 centimeters in 2022, followed by 3.9 centimeters in 2009 and 2.8 centimeters in both 2000 and 2012. This year, some parts of Seoul could see 10 to 20 centimeters, far surpassing previous records, the KMA said.
The lack of heavy snow during the holiday is largely due to the weakening of the Siberian high-pressure system, which typically dominates the region’s weather in January. The coldest period of the year, from the winter solstice to late January, coincides with the peak of this high-pressure system. Cold winds from the Siberian high often generate snow clouds over the West Sea due to the temperature difference between the sea surface and the atmosphere. However, as the high-pressure system weakens closer to the holiday, snow clouds diminish, resulting in lighter snowfall.
This winter, however, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the West Sea have altered these conditions. The central West Sea is currently about 7 to 8 degrees Celsius (45 to 46 degrees Fahrenheit), higher than normal. The larger temperature difference has intensified snow cloud formation, leading to wet, heavy snow that accumulates more easily.
Falling temperatures are also contributing to the increased snow accumulation. As cold air moves south beginning Jan. 27, temperatures are expected to steadily drop throughout the holiday. Daytime temperatures in central regions will remain below freezing, preventing the snow from melting. On Jan. 28, morning lows are forecast to drop 4 to 8 degrees Celsius compared to the previous day, raising concerns about icy roads and black ice.
Morning lows on Jan. 28 are expected to range from minus 10 to minus 1 degree Celsius (14 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit), with daytime highs between minus 4 and 6 degrees Celsius (25 to 43 degrees Fahrenheit). On Lunar New Year’s Day, Jan. 29, temperatures are forecast to range from minus 12 to minus 1 degree Celsius (10 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit) in the morning and minus 4 to 6 degrees Celsius (25 to 43 degrees Fahrenheit) during the day.