South Korean economists forecast a 1.6% growth for the country’s economy this year, according to a recent survey, as uncertainties grow, including the U.S. Trump administration’s universal tariff policy. This is lower than the government’s 1.8% projection. Six out of 10 economists also expect prolonged stagnation for the economy.
In a survey conducted between Jan. 6 and 17, 100 economics professors at South Korean universities forecasted a 1.6% growth rate for the year, according to the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF) on Feb. 2.
When asked about future economic trends, 64% said growth would stagnate for a considerable period, while 35% expected a slow recovery after an initial decline. No respondents anticipated a sharp rebound. Regarding South Korea’s overall industrial competitiveness, 56% of economists had a pessimistic outlook, while 34% remained neutral. Only 9% were optimistic.
Most economists also expressed concern over the impact of the Trump administration’s economic and trade policies. A large majority of 83% believed that strengthened U.S. protectionism would have a negative effect on South Korea’s export-dependent economy. Only 8% saw potential benefits, such as gains from U.S.-China tensions or stronger South Korea-U.S. cooperation.
