South Korea’s population continued to decline last year despite a slight rebound in births, with more than 450,000 people lost over the past five years, signaling an accelerating demographic crisis.
According to preliminary demographic data from Statistics Korea’s Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) released on Feb. 3, the country’s population shrank by 120,000 in 2024 due to natural decrease. While the number of births rose to 238,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous year, deaths far outpaced births, totaling 358,000.
Among S. Korea’s 17 major cities and provinces, only Sejong saw a natural population increase, with 1,000 more births than deaths. The remaining 16 regions all experienced population decline.
S. Korea’s population has been decreasing for five consecutive years since it first recorded a natural decline in 2020. The rate of decline has also widened, growing from 33,000 in 2020 to 57,000 in 2021. Since 2022, the annual decrease has remained in the 120,000 range. Over the past five years alone, the country has lost 456,000 people.
A look at historical data highlights the stark demographic shift. Between 1990 and 1994, S. Korea’s natural population increase totaled 2.33 million. However, the rate of growth steadily slowed before turning negative in 2020.
The decline in births has been particularly sharp. Over the past five years (2020–2024), only 1.25 million babies were born, marking the lowest figure on record.
Falling marriage rates are also exacerbating the low birthrate. S. Korea recorded 222,000 marriages last year—the highest since 2019, when there were 239,000. However, the total number of marriages over the past five years stands at just 1.014 million, the lowest ever recorded. That marks a drop of 332,000 compared to the previous five-year period (2015–2019), which saw 1.346 million marriages.
Experts widely believe that, despite last year’s slight uptick in births, S. Korea’s long-term population decline is likely to continue. As the proportion of elderly residents grows while the working-age population (15–64) shrinks, concerns over a “demographic onus”—a scenario in which the burden of supporting retirees increases—are mounting.
According to Statistics Korea’s data regarding population projections, S. Korea’s total population, based on the median estimate, will decline from 51.67 million in 2022 to 51.31 million in 2030. By 2072, it is projected to shrink to 36.22 million, roughly the same level as in 1977. Over the same period, the proportion of people aged 65 and older is expected to surge to 47.7%.
The National Assembly Budget Office warned in a recent long-term fiscal outlook that if the country follows a low-population scenario, its national debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 181.9%—9 percentage points higher than the baseline projection of 173.0%.
“If the increase in births observed in 2024 proves to be only temporary and the low-population scenario becomes reality, the burden of national debt could rise even further,” the office noted. “Policy measures are needed to maintain at least the median-level population structure.”
