The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that South Korea’s severe low birth rate could lead to the country’s population halving over the next 60 years.
In a report released on March 5, titled “Korea’s Unborn Future: Understanding Low-Fertility Trends,” the OECD highlighted that while declining birth rates are a global issue, South Korea’s fertility rate of 0.72 children per woman in 2023 is the lowest in the world. This is the first official OECD publication addressing South Korea’s low birth rate.
If the birth rate remains at this level, South Korea’s population is expected to halve over the next six decades, and by 2082, those aged 65 or older will account for about 58% of the total population. The elderly dependency ratio, which compares the population aged 65 and over to those aged 20-64, is expected to surge from 28% to 155%, meaning one working-age person would have to support 1.5 elderly individuals.
The OECD attributed South Korea’s particularly low birth rate to high private education expenses. Many South Korean parents spend a significant portion of their income on private education, and the cost increases with the number of children, leading to lower birth rates.
In addition, long working hours, limited flexibility in work schedules, and the difficulty of balancing work and family life were cited as factors contributing to the declining birth rate. The OECD noted that many women face a choice between family and career, while men are often expected to be the sole breadwinners. This creates stress for both men and women, affecting their happiness and family income.
To address the decline in birth rates, the OECD suggested improving national childcare services. Increased access to quality childcare, including after-school programs, flexible work arrangements for parents, and extended hours for childcare facilities, would help encourage parents to have more children.
The OECD also called for improvements to the paid parental leave system, which currently has limited eligibility and low utilization. Despite its importance in addressing the fertility issue, parental leave policies receive a small portion of the birth-related budget, with most funds allocated to housing, which has a less direct impact on birth rates.
The OECD proposed extending the working lifespan of older individuals. A 2023 survey by Statistics Korea found that 70% of people aged 55-79 wanted to continue working, yet the average retirement age was only 52.7 years.
The OECD further recommended accepting more foreign labor by removing visa barriers for skilled workers and improving working conditions for low-skilled workers.
The report projected that by increasing working age, immigration, and raising the fertility rate to 1.1 children per woman, South Korea’s GDP could grow by 12% by 2070.
