In an interview with Chosunilbo on Jan. 17, People Power Party (PPP) lawmaker Tae Yong-ho (Thae Yong-ho) said, “It doesn’t make sense for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to claim he is preparing for war while selling his weapons to other countries,” regarding North Korea’s recent political and military provocations. “There is no need to be anxious about Kim Jong-un’s bluff or intimidation.”
Tae Yong-ho, a former high-ranking North Korean diplomat, secured a seat in the Seoul Gangnam-gu district during the general elections on April 15, 2020, four years after his defection. He is now the ruling party’s spokesperson for the National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee.
North Korea has been intensifying political and military provocations since the end of last year.
“Since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol government, the trilateral security alliance among South Korea, the United States, and Japan has strengthened, and the establishment of the South Korea-U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Group (NCG) has enhanced capabilities for responding to North Korea’s nuclear threat. Kim Jong-un previously attempted to exploit the weakness in the nuclear war aspect that the South Korea-U.S. alliance had not adequately prepared for. However, with the South Korea-U.S. alliance now closely addressing North Korea’s nuclear threats, Kim Jong-un has become more uneasy.”
Some interpret the provocations as considering the April general elections in South Korea and the November U.S. presidential election.
“I agree. Kim Jong-un hopes for an opportunity to engage in dialogue and negotiations with the U.S. after President Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. From Kim Jong-un’s perspective, he wants to instill the perception among the American people that North Korea has developed advanced nuclear weapons because the Biden administration has not engaged in dialogue with North Korea. To achieve this, he continues to showcase new and diversified weapons and escalate provocations.”
What impact is the North aiming to have on the South’s general elections?
“The People Power Party advocates ‘peace through strength,’ while the Democratic Party of Korea emphasizes ‘A bad peace is better than a good war.’ The North Korean regime is trying to manipulate the views of South Koreans by considering which choice they will make between the two parties. As the election approaches, the North Korean regime is likely to escalate its provocations.”
How much influence can North Korea’s provocations have on the general elections?
“In the past, the so-called ‘Northern Wind’ strategy worked, but now it is unlikely to receive much support. There are no signs of anxiety among the people or activities such as evacuation drills for U.S. military families. The impact on the elections is expected to be minimal. Nevertheless, Kim Jong Un will not give up on this approach. He has no other option.”
Is there an intention to consolidate internal unity?
“The [Millennials and Generation Z] in North Korea secretly watch South Korean dramas and movies, admiring South Korea and having expectations for reunification. By excluding concepts of nationality and peaceful reunification from the constitution, Kim Jong-un is trying to convince the MZ generation in North Korea that ‘unification is impossible.’”
President Yoon on Jan. 16 said, “If North Korea provokes, we will retaliate multiple times.”
“It was a very well-made statement. The North Korean regime is a system that backs down and weakens when faced with strong retaliation. If we ‘tone down’ the response, Kim Jong-un may misinterpret it as ‘South Korea is weakening because of my high-level provocations.’ Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Kim Myung-soo delivered a strong message during the early part of this year when they inspected forward-deployed units, saying ‘swiftly, forcefully, until the end’ in response to provocations. When North Korea fired projectiles in the West Sea for three consecutive days at the beginning of the year, our military responded with more than double the firepower, and the situation is calm now.”
If North Korea raises the tension, could it lead to actual provocations?
“It’s hard to say that there is no possibility of provocations. The firing of guns and artillery shells could occur, but massive provocations like the sinking of the South Korean Navy ship Cheonan are unlikely to happen.”
What leads you to that judgment?
“North Korea is now selling a significant number of its shells and missiles to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine. They are reportedly selling everything they produce, including items deployed in military units because they need money right now. At the same time, they are concerned that ‘what if South Korea and the United States suddenly invade, knowing about this situation?’ If Kim Jong-un thinks of starting a war immediately this year, it doesn’t make sense for him to send a bunch of weapons to Russia right now. Kim Jong-un is trying to scare South Korea and the U.S. by showing off and acting as if he will do something significant.”
There are suspicions that North Korea is getting military technology from Russia in exchange for arms deals.
“I believe the frequent provocations are related to Russian military technology transfers. North Korea’s recent launches of military reconnaissance satellites, solid-fuel hypersonic missiles, and others are highly sophisticated technologies. From North Korea’s perspective, the current moment of transferring weapons to Russia is a time to conduct as many military experiments as possible and introduce technologies that were previously unresolved.”
What is the internal situation in North Korea?
“Contrary to Kim Jong-un’s rhetoric, North Korean residents view the possibility of war as absurd. They are preparing for farming, and Communist Party officials encourage factory production. In times of real tension, Pyongyang used to hold ‘nighttime air raid drills’ every evening, but they are not taking place now.”
