The possibility of a “new treaty” to strengthen military and security cooperation between Russia and North Korea has been raised in light of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to North Korea, his first in 24 years. This visit could lay the foundation for long-term military cooperation beyond mere arms trade. The South Korean government’s unusual preemptive confirmation of Putin’s visit, stating it would happen within days, is seen as a pressure tactic to discourage excessive cooperation.
Putin’s visit is expected around June 18-19. He last visited North Korea in July 2000 during Kim Jong-il’s rule. Although Putin declined an invitation to visit North Korea during Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in 2019, he has chosen to go to Pyongyang despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, indicating significant mutual interests.
A high-ranking South Korean official noted on June 13 that the current geopolitical climate makes this visit far more dangerous than Putin’s visit 24 years ago. North Korea and Russia are expected to review their cooperative efforts since their summit last September and discuss additional exchanges, likely emphasizing economic cooperation, which is less controversial internationally.
There are international concerns that Russia might supply weapons to North Korea. North Korea reportedly seeks support for nuclear-powered submarines, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), reconnaissance satellites, and fighter jets. Unlike the previous summit, which focused on short-term transactions of conventional weapons for the Ukraine battlefield, this meeting might see agreements on joint weapons development and closer military cooperation.
Some Russian experts speculate that the two countries may sign a new treaty, following the precedent set by the 1961 treaty between the Soviet Union and North Korea. Konstantin Asmolov, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences, mentioned in an interview on June 11 that a new agreement inheriting the 1961 treaty might be signed, with potential military and political elements. The original treaty, signed during Kim Il-sung’s visit to the Soviet Union, included a clause for automatic military intervention, which was abolished in 1996 after the Soviet Union’s dissolution. In 2000, Putin’s first visit resulted in a new treaty, but it lacked the automatic military intervention clause. Hyun Seung-soo, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), believes that while it’s unlikely the automatic intervention clause will be reinstated, the visit will likely enhance overall cooperation between the two nations in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
However, some predict that Putin’s offers might fall short of North Korea’s expectations. Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at KINU, suggested that Russia, considering its significant trade volume with South Korea and South Korea’s lack of direct military aid to Ukraine, might focus on political lip service rather than substantial support for North Korea.
South Korea also sees North Korea’s recent restraint, following provocative balloon launches, as linked to Putin’s visit. A South Korean official noted that Kim Yo-jong’s sudden moderation in anti-South Korea rhetoric and efforts to manage the situation likely stem from the need to focus on preparing for Putin’s visit, as escalating tensions with South Korea would be undesirable for Putin’s visit to Pyongyang.
