Dozens of North Korean soldiers crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) on June. 18. and returned to the North after South Korean forces fired warning shots. This marks the third time in the past ten days since the 9th that North Korean troops have crossed the MDL. There are observations that the North Korean military is preparing for future provocations.
“Around 20 to 30 North Korean soldiers crossed over to the 20-meter area south of the Military Demarcation Line on the Central Front around 8:30 a.m., but retreated after a warning broadcast and warning shots,” the Republic of Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff (ROK JCS) said. “Most of them were carrying work tools such as pickaxes and shovels, and they returned immediately after the warning, so it is considered a ‘simple infringement.’”
Earlier, on two separate occasions on June. 9., 20 to 30 North Korean soldiers crossed the MDL from different parts of the Central Front but retreated after warning shots from the South Korean military. At the time, the ROK JCS characterized the incursions as “simple infiltrations” because most troops were carrying work equipment, left immediately after being warned, and likely got lost in the thick vegetation along the MDL.
However, North Korea has previously conducted preemptive provocations similar to the second Battle of Yeonpyeong in 2002 and the landmine provocation in 2015, crossing the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and the MDL before returning. There is also a possibility that North Korea might employ a diversionary tactic and provoke near the northwestern islands instead of the MDL area.
Meanwhile, the ROK JCS stated that “since April, the North Korean military has been engaged in various activities in multiple front-line areas, including creating barren zones, planting mines, reinforcing tactical roads, and constructing unknown structures that appear to be anti-tank barriers.” The ROK JCS also noted several instances of mine explosion accidents during these activities, resulting in multiple casualties.
The anti-tank barriers constructed by North Korea are currently being installed in four locations along the NLL (2km north of the MDL), with some reaching lengths of several hundred meters and heights of 4 to 5 meters. Regarding the possibility that North Korea is establishing a ground border, a ROK JCS official stated, “It cannot be ruled out, but it is difficult to conclude at this point, and establishing a border is impossible under our current armistice agreement system.”
Following North Korea’s declaration to nullify the “September. 19 military agreement” on Nov. 23. last year, the North restored front-line guard posts (GPs) that had been withdrawn under the agreement by January of this year and has been planting mines around the Gyeongui Line, Donghae Line, and Arrowhead Hill areas. Recently, North Korea has accelerated the mine-laying process and has been observed constructing anti-tank barriers hundreds of meters long, according to our military surveillance assets.
According to the ROK JCS, since April, North Korea has been creating barren zones and planting mines in over 10 locations within the northern Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). A ROK JCS official stated, “Every day, hundreds of people start working at sunrise and finish at sunset.” The official also mentioned that several mine explosion accidents have occurred during the mine-laying process, resulting in dozens of casualties being transported, which was also detected by our military surveillance assets.
The North Korean personnel who crossed into the southern side of the MDL on June. 18. may have been conducting preliminary clearing work for mine laying. The ROK JCS official explained, “To lay mines, barren zone preparation must be carried out first,” adding, “The dense vegetation suggests that it is an initial stage of mine-laying reconnaissance and preparation.”
