In the lead-up to this November’s U.S. presidential election, tensions are mounting as North Korea continues to send propaganda-laden balloons across the border into South Korea. Adding to the unease, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida—both key figures, alongside South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, in the 2023 Camp David Declaration—are expected to leave office soon. This has sparked concerns in South Korea that its security alliances could be jeopardized.
There’s also speculation that if former U.S. President Donald Trump, who met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un three times during his first term, returns to the White House, he may pursue dialogue with North Korea while sidelining South Korea.
Kim Kuk-song, a former senior official in North Korea’s General Reconnaissance Bureau who gained attention in 2021 for a BBC interview alleging the presence of North Korean spies in the South Korean government, recently weighed in on the situation. He warned that if the U.S. and Japan establish direct contact with North Korea, “South Korea will be left in the cold,” and urged the South to take proactive steps toward engagement with the North.
Amid recent defections by high-ranking North Korean diplomats, including Ri Il-kyu, Kim expressed skepticism about rumors of the regime’s impending collapse. He pointed out that while over 34,000 North Koreans have defected, most are women and young people from border areas, and elite defections like his are exceedingly rare. He cautioned that viewing North Korea through a South Korean lens could lead to miscalculations.
Kim himself defected to South Korea in 2014, a year after the execution of Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong-un’s uncle and one of North Korea’s most powerful figures. Having been close to Jang for 30 years, Kim chose to flee when he became a target for purging. In North Korea, he had lived in considerable luxury, even driving a Mercedes-Benz gifted to him by Kim Kyong-hui, Kim Jong-il’s sister and Jang’s wife.
During a Sept. 9 interview with Weekly Chosun at a hotel in Seoul—coinciding with North Korea’s national foundation day—Kim remained under tight security, with a bodyguard standing watch outside.
Is North Korea on the brink of collapse due to these high-level defections?
“People have been predicting North Korea’s collapse since Kim Il-sung’s death in 1994, but it’s been 30 years. They said the same when Kim Jong-il died, and that Kim Jong-un wouldn’t last five years. But here we are, and North Korea is now a nuclear state, whether people acknowledge it or not. Waiting for North Korea to collapse is like standing under a tree, waiting for the fruit to fall.”
Who does Kim Jong-un favor in the upcoming U.S. election?
“Definitely Trump.”
What if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins?
“Frankly, North Korea no longer fears the U.S. They now have nuclear weapons, something neither Kim Il-sung nor Kim Jong-il had. With that power, Kim Jong-un doesn’t need to request talks; he demands that others come to him. Whether the U.S. imposes sanctions or not, North Korea remains unfazed, just as Kim Il-sung responded to Jimmy Carter during his 1994 visit: ‘Sanctions? Let them come if they want.’”
If Trump wins, will U.S.-North Korea talks resume?
“North Korea’s ultimate goal has always been to meet with the U.S. President and build a relationship. That hasn’t changed. Now, with nuclear weapons, they have the leverage to make it happen. If Trump wins, Kim Jong-un might invite him to Pyongyang, and knowing Trump, he’d likely go. If that happens, he’d be welcomed with overwhelming cheers.”
Could Japan also seek contact with North Korea under a new prime minister?
“Fumio Kishida has already expressed interest in meeting Kim Jong-un. Koizumi Shinjiro, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is a leading candidate to succeed Kishida, and he could also pursue this. Kim Jong-un might be inclined to engage with Japan, especially given that his mother, Ko Yong-hui, was a Korean-Japanese.”
Could South Korea be isolated if U.S.-North Korea and Japan-North Korea relations improve?
“Kim Jong-un has already floated the ‘two-state theory,’ signaling that he might engage with the U.S. while sidelining South Korea. He sees himself as the leader of a sovereign state, and he wants to negotiate with the U.S. on equal terms. If this happens, South Korea risks being sidelined, like a dog chasing after a chicken but never catching it.”
What should South Korea do?
“We need to take the initiative. Now, while relations with North Korea are strained, is actually an opportunity. Political leadership means acting when others hesitate. South Korea can’t afford to rest on its laurels, thinking we’re ahead. We’ve only been prosperous for 30 years, and we shouldn’t let arrogance blind us. Without resolving the North Korean issue, South Korea’s future remains uncertain. North Korea is like a cancerous tumor or a ticking time bomb—we need to address it.”
How can South Korea open the door to negotiations?
“We need to identify the right people—those who truly understand North Korea and can directly engage with its leadership. A presidential task force should be created for this. North Korea doesn’t trust the National Intelligence Service (NIS), viewing it as a nest of intrigue. Nor do they trust the Ministry of Unification. But if a presidential team is formed, North Korea might see it as a serious effort and consider engagement.”
Do you think Kim Jong-un has chosen his daughter as his successor?
“I doubt it. Kim Jong-un parades his daughter around for three main reasons: to show that his successor will come from his family, to emphasize his role as a benevolent leader, and to highlight his fatherly image. But it’s too early for succession planning. He’s still young, and his daughter is only about 10. He also reportedly has a son, who is likely being groomed for the future.”
Is there any discontent among North Korean elites about a potential fourth-generation succession?
“Not really. The regime has been solidified for 80 years, creating a system of absolute loyalty to the Kim family. Through constant ideological education, the population has been conditioned to believe in the supreme leader as their savior. Even high-ranking officials know their homes are bugged, but they still show loyalty. The only way this regime collapses is if Kim Jong-un disappears. The moment he’s gone, the system will unravel.”
