North Korea fired more than 200 rounds of artillery shells off its west coast toward Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong Island between 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. on Jan. 5. The shells fell into the waters north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL). The South Korean military responded by firing more than 400 rounds six hours later, but the timing of the response has raised questions about its effectiveness.
Despite promises that South Korea would follow principles of “act first, report later” and respond “immediately, firmly, and conclusively” to North Korean threats, this approach has not been properly implemented.
The North’s latest provocation came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for accelerated war preparations in response to what he described as “unprecedented confrontation moves” led by the U.S. and South Korea. North Korea’s threats are part of a longstanding strategy to put pressure on South Korea and gain leverage in future negotiations. The North has used this tactic since the end of the Korean War, often timed to coincide with key political events in the South, such as elections.
North Korea’s attack on the Cheonan warship in 2010 was also strategically aligned with South Korea’s local elections. In the run-up general elections in April this year, similar attempts will be made by the North to stir security concerns in South Korea. These may include covert military provocations like the Cheonan attack, cyberattacks, simulated tactical nuclear tests, and even interference in electoral processes such as hacking of voting systems. With the U.S. presidential election in November, threats involving the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) are also possible.
North Korea’s provocations around major political events in the U.S. and South Korea may raise the possibility of reigniting internal conflicts within South Korean society. This is exactly what the North wants.
North Korea’s actions are more about political and psychological warfare than actual military confrontation. The North cannot afford a full-scale counterattack by South Korea. North Korea is trying to maximize political and psychological impact without triggering a significant military response. Recognizing this intention is important for the South. South Korea must maintain a strong, measured response that doesn’t play into North Korea’s strategy.
