During a campaign rally in South Chungcheong Province on March 22, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party, questioned, “Why keep pestering China?” With a gesture of clasping his hands together, he suggested that a simple “xièxiè” (thank you) to China and also expressing gratitude to Taiwan should suffice. “Why bother meddling everywhere?” He further questioned the relevance of the Taiwan Strait issue to South Korea, asking, “Whatever happens in the Taiwan Strait, whatever happens with China and Taiwan’s domestic issues, what does it matter to us?” It is surprising enough that the leader of the dominant party in the parliament has made remarks that seem to be kowtowing to China, but the security perception and geopolitical understanding that ‘What does the Taiwan Strait issue have to do with us?’ is even more absurd.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States released a “war game report” last year that simulated a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the war game, China initially targeted U.S. military bases in Japan, concerned that fighter jets and aircraft carriers launched from Japan—where the core forces of the U.S. Navy and Air Force are stationed—would intercept Chinese troops attempting to land in Taiwan. South Korea, which also hosts U.S. Air Force bases, was noted in the CSIS report as a likely target for China to instigate provocations by North Korea to disperse U.S. military power. By creating a second front on the Korean Peninsula concurrent with an invasion of Taiwan, China can divide the focus of U.S. forces between the Peninsula and Taiwan, increasing its chances of success. Keeping U.S. forces tied down on the peninsula is crucial for China. If North Korea’s Kim Jong-un believes the U.S. lacks the capacity to send reinforcements, he might be highly likely to take a risk.
Historical precedents confirm the close connection between the security of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan. When the Korean War broke out, the U.S. quickly moved the Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait. This military action was taken to prevent the spread of conflict to both sides of the Strait, such as a Chinese Communist invasion of Taiwan, before the U.S. military’s participation. Likewise, if China decides to attack Taiwan, it is a foregone conclusion that China will ignite a second front on the Korean Peninsula. The situation cannot be altered by the South Korean regime’s emotional affinity towards China. South Korea’s maritime trade routes will also be hit if China attacks Taiwan. The flames from the Taiwan Strait are bound to spread to the Korean Peninsula. The belief that merely avoiding provocation and expressing thanks to China would be sufficient shows a fundamental misunderstanding of security and geopolitical dynamics.
