The Office of the President of South Korea has announced that it will “review the issue of arms assistance to Ukraine.” Until now, the government has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and participated in international sanctions against Russia while refraining from directly supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine. So far, aid has focused on non-lethal military supplies such as medical supplies, combat rations, and bulletproof helmets. This was a deliberate decision, taking into account post-war relations between South Korea and Russia. Now that Russia has signed a new treaty with North Korea, including provisions for automatic intervention in the event of emergencies, and has announced military and technical assistance to North Korea, South Korea can no longer avoid responding accordingly.
It was not an easy decision for South Korea to draw the line on military support when most of South Korea’s allies, including the United States and Europe, were sending weapons to Ukraine. South Korea even sent its ambassador to congratulate Russian President Vladimir Putin on his fifth inauguration, an event boycotted by the overwhelming majority of Western countries. Russia should have considered the significance of this gesture and acted prudently. In a press conference before his visit to North Korea, Putin mentioned his gratitude for South Korea’s refusal to send weapons to Ukraine, but it was only in words. The “Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” signed by North Korea and Russia has revived the automatic intervention clause that had been in place during the Cold War but was scrapped in 1996.
Although not explicitly stated in the pact, Putin said in a press conference that he “does not exclude military-technical cooperation with North Korea.” Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, is willing to ignore the resolutions it helped create. Modernizing outdated Soviet-made weapons has been a long-standing goal for North Korea. To fulfill its “Five Strategic Weapons Tasks,” North Korea wants to enhance the capabilities of its nuclear-powered submarines, ICBMs, and reconnaissance satellites by transferring Russian technology. There is no reason why these developments cannot happen now. If military cooperation between North Korea and Russia becomes a reality, it will directly threaten the security of the South Korean people. This not only betrays South Korea’s goodwill but also crosses a red line in ROK-Russian relations.
In response, South Korea may begin by providing defensive weapons, such as air defense systems, and could escalate to supplying lethal arms if the North Korea-Russia partnership continues. Since last year, South Korea has been lending and selling hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells to the U.S., which has used them to bolster its arsenal and support Ukraine. This was an indirect way to support Ukraine, considering both Russian and American positions. Now, even if South Korea were to supply these weapons directly to Ukraine, Russia would have no grounds for complaint, as this situation is a consequence of Russia’s actions. South Korea can mass-produce advanced weapons that far surpass North Korea’s outdated arsenal. Russia should not forget that.
