On Oct 18., the South Korean government announced, “It has been confirmed that North Korea recently decided to send a total of 12,000 troops from four brigades, including special forces, to the war in Ukraine.” The National Intelligence Service stated that “about 1,500 people have already been deployed.” President Yoon Suk-yeol convened an emergency security meeting that day. In the past, North Korea sent troops to conflicts like the Vietnam War and the Middle East War, but these deployments were small in scale, involving roles like fighter pilots. The decision to send 10,000 troops marks the largest deployment in North Korean history.
Currently, Russian forces are suffering significant losses in the war. Since the start of the war in 2022, the number of Russian soldiers killed or injured has reached 700,000. Russia is driving even the nation’s prisoners to the battlefield. North Korean troops set to be deployed are likely to be equipped with inferior weapons and gear compared to their Russian counterparts, and communication with Russian units may be hampered by language barriers. Additionally, operating in unfamiliar terrain raises the risk of significant casualties, especially with winter fast approaching.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is likely highly interested in the wages that the 10,000 North Korean soldiers will earn. North Korea is currently grappling with severe economic challenges, exacerbated by its deteriorating relations with China. The recovery from last summer’s floods is still incomplete. It is reported that combat soldiers receive wages that are several times that of workers sent abroad. The New York Times noted, “Participation in the war in Ukraine offers North Korean officers an opportunity to gain experience in modern warfare and become familiar with new weapons.” Kim Jong-un is essentially forcing around 10,000 young North Koreans into harm’s way to fund his regime and bolster his ability to attack South Korea. It’s shocking.
Russia, which has received these troops, is likely to ignore UN Security Council sanctions and provide North Korea with what it desires in return. Reviving its military alliance with North Korea, Russia has continued to signal its willingness to recognize North Korea’s nuclear weapons. North Korea has yet to complete an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S., and its military reconnaissance satellite capabilities remain rudimentary. Developing multiple warhead ICBMs and advanced satellites are among the goals Kim Jong-un has pledged to achieve. This development poses a grave threat to South Korea’s security.
If a significant number of North Korean troops deployed to Ukraine return home dead or injured, it could greatly impact public sentiment within the country, potentially leading to desertions or even defections. Having grown up in the marketplace economy, the younger generation tends to be less blindly loyal to the Kim regime, making this large-scale troop deployment a risky move for Kim Jong-un. In recent times, North Korea has employed tactics such as showing anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets via drones to incite public hostility toward South Korea. It has staged dramatic actions, like the explosion of the Gyeongui Line, to simulate severed ties. These provocations may be linked to its decision to send troops to Russia. It’s crucial to closely watch developments between North Korea and Russia, using all available intelligence resources.
