The number of births in South Korea continued to rise in both July and August, following an increase in the second quarter of this year. This has led to cautious speculation that the country’s total fertility rate, which had plummeted to 0.7, might be showing signs of recovery.
According to data from Statistics Korea, there were 20,098 births in August, an increase of 1,124 (6%) compared to the same month last year. In July, the number of births was 20,601, a rise of 8% year-on-year, marking two consecutive months where the monthly birth count exceeded 20,000. This is a rare piece of good news amid concerns about the country’s low birthrate.
There are also positive indicators in marriage trends, which can serve as a predictor for future birthrates. The number of marriages is rising, along with an increase in the willingness of unmarried men and women to get married and have children.
In August, there were 17,527 marriages, up 2,917 (20%) from the same period last year. In July, the number of marriages surged by 33% year-on-year to 18,811. If this upward trend in marriages and births continues into the latter half of the year, there is hope that the annual birth in S. Korea count could see its first increase in nine years.
However, it is still too early to determine whether this uptick in marriages and births is a temporary blip or the start of a more sustained trend. Some analysts suggest that delayed weddings due to the pandemic may now be leading to an increase in births.
Many experts also argue that a genuine rebound in the birthrate would require the annual birth count to reach at least 300,000, whereas the current figure is around 230,000. There has been a noticeable change in sentiment compared to the previous period when pessimism about the declining birthrate was widespread.
The exact reasons for this increase in marriages and births in the nation remain unclear. However, policies such as expanding housing support for newlyweds and families with children, as well as raising the maximum monthly childcare leave benefit to 2.5 million won ($1815.40) starting next year, may have contributed to these recent trends.
It is essential for the government, local authorities, and companies to analyze whether this increase is temporary or part of a broader trend, and to understand the factors behind it. dentifying which policies have had the greatest impact on specific demographic groups will be crucial in devising more effective measures to combat the low birthrate.
Moreover, sending a consistent message that marriage and parenthood are positive choices—and that society is prepared to support them with concrete policies—will be vital in addressing this issue over the long term.
