China’s military launched drills surrounding Taiwan from multiple directions on April 1, marking the third such exercise in the past year. Beijing’s escalating threats against Taiwan are not just Taiwan’s concern. If China ever takes military action, the impact will almost certainly reach the Korean Peninsula, given the security dynamics in Northeast Asia.
Adding to the concern, the Trump administration, in its recently confirmed “Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance,” identified “deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan” as the Pentagon’s top priority, using more explicit language than before. Experts suggest that this signals a shift in U.S. strategy, with American forces in South Korea and Japan no longer fixed in place, but instead deployed flexibly in response to China’s actions. At a recent U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, American security experts stressed the need for a clear agreement between Washington and Seoul regarding the potential redeployment or logistical support of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
It is natural for the U.S. to operate its military as it sees fit—any nation would do the same, regardless of who is president. In a serious military situation, such as a U.S.-China conflict, Washington will deploy its overseas forces based on its own strategic needs, regardless of South Korea’s position. This is the stark reality South Korea must confront.
Despite these risks, South Korea has avoided serious discussions about the Taiwan issue. The government has likely been reluctant to address the potential involvement of USFK in a Taiwan conflict, fearing it could strain relations with China. The lack of understanding of international politics among some politicians is partly to blame, with one prominent presidential candidate even saying, “Why should we care about what happens in the Taiwan Strait or with the China-Taiwan issue?”
While the chance of China invading Taiwan is low, it is not impossible. If China takes that risk, it may attempt to create a second front on the Korean Peninsula, dividing U.S. forces in the region. In any case, U.S. air power in South Korea would likely be directed toward Taiwan, but China could strike U.S. air bases in Korea first to prevent this. The South Korean government and military must be prepared for all scenarios.
