The United States will not withdraw or reduce its troops stationed in South Korea even if former U.S. President Donald Trump is re-elected this November, said Fred Fleitz, vice chairman of the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) Center for American Security. Fleitz is considered a potential U.S. National Security Advisor candidate if Trump wins the presidential election.
Fleitz addressed concerns about a second Trump administration at a panel hosted by the Sejong Institute in South Korea on July 9. Regarding Trump’s previous comments on withdrawing its troops from South Korea, Fleitz said, “The situation with China, Russia, and North Korea has changed since the first Trump administration.” He cited the rise of Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism in China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and North Korea’s strengthening ties with Russia as such changes.
“Trump’s re-election will have a positive impact on South Korea’s security,” he said. He explained that South Korea’s strategic importance in the current geopolitical landscape has become more pronounced compared to Trump’s first term in 2017 to 2021, making the idea of reducing U.S. forces in the region inconceivable.
This is the first time a key figure in Trump’s campaign has explicitly denied the possibility of pulling out or reducing U.S. troops in South Korea. Fleitz focused on easing concerns related to Trump’s possible return to office during the two-hour panel. He also mentioned that he was not speaking for Trump, but offering his own assessment.
“Defense cost-sharing negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea will not be as difficult in a second Trump administration,” he said. During his presidency, Trump had previously demanded a five-fold increase in South Korea’s share of U.S. defense costs.
He said that a second Trump administration is likely to appoint a special envoy to North Korea to re-engage in dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “But unlike in the first term, the second Trump administration will go through intensive consultations with Japan and South Korea, probably Taiwan among U.S. allies in advance,” Fleitz said. He expects the Trump administration to engage in frequent calls and conversations with President Yoon Suk Yeol about North Korea.
In response to criticism that “Trump suspended U.S.-South Korea joint military drills without prior consultation after the 2018 Singapore summit,” Fleitz assured the second Trump administration would take a different approach. Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton also predicted that Trump would likely hold a summit in Pyongyang if re-elected.
Fleitz noted that “by addressing the possibility of South Korea’s nuclear armament early last year, President Yoon caught President Biden’s attention, leading to the trilateral summit between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan at Camp David.” He expressed hope that President Yoon will establish such a positive relationship with Trump should he be re-elected.
He was cautious about discussing the possibility of South Korea developing nuclear weapons in the event of a Trump presidency. Fleitz stressed the importance of Washington’s nuclear umbrella while acknowledging the complexities related to nuclear proliferation. He criticized Elbridge Colby, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development during the Trump administration, for suggesting that South Korea should start considering nuclear armament.
