Constitutional Court will rule on Prime Minister Han Duck-soo’s impeachment on March 24, making it increasingly likely that a decision on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment will be delayed. The timing could also affect opposition leader Lee Jae-myung’s legal battle, with an appellate court ruling on his case set for March 26.
Legal analysts suggest that by ruling on Han’s case first, the court may be signaling its intention to handle Yoon’s impeachment more cautiously. The court’s scheduling decision is closely intertwined with Lee’s legal troubles, as his eligibility for future elections depends on the outcome of his appeal.
Lee, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party (DPK), was indicted without detention in September 2022 for allegedly making false statements in violation of the Public Official Election Act. The charges stem from remarks he made in December 2021 during appearances on four television programs, where he denied knowing the late Kim Moon-ki, former head of the development division at Seongnam Development Corp., during his tenure as Seongnam mayor. He was also accused of falsely claiming during a National Assembly hearing in October 2021 that the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport pressured him to rezone land for the Baekhyeon-dong development project.
In November 2024, a lower court sentenced Lee to one year in prison with a two-year suspended sentence. If the appeals court upholds a fine of at least 1 million won ($750), and the Supreme Court later confirms the ruling, Lee will lose his parliamentary seat and be barred from running in the next presidential election. If he appeals, the Supreme Court must issue a final ruling by June 26, the legal deadline.
If the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, a presidential election must be held within 60 days. A ruling in late March or early April would mean an election in late May or early June.
Legal experts urge the Supreme Court to rule before a possible snap election to prevent political uncertainty. A senior high court judge noted that if Supreme Court justices reach a consensus, a ruling could be delivered before the election. Hwang Do-soo, a former rapporteur judge and professor at Konkuk University Law School, said the country’s deep political divide stems from uncertainty over Lee’s legal status, arguing that a swift ruling is essential for stability.
The Constitutional Court has faced criticism for expediting Yoon’s impeachment case, raising concerns over a rushed process. Some legal analysts suspect the court aims to conclude Yoon’s case swiftly to enable Lee’s potential participation in a snap election. However, delaying Yoon’s ruling until after Lee’s appellate decision could help the court avoid such accusations.
Lee’s legal team argues that a final Supreme Court ruling before a presidential election would be procedurally impossible under the Criminal Procedure Act. They say that necessary steps, including the submission of appeal documents and review processes, would take at least a month. Further complicating matters, legal scholars debate whether ongoing legal proceedings should be paused if Lee were to win the presidency.
Opinions on Lee’s appellate ruling remain divided. While some expect the original ruling of one year in prison with a two-year suspension to be upheld, others suggest a possible acquittal or a reduced fine below the 1-million-won threshold, allowing Lee to retain his political eligibility. The court’s stance on Lee’s two constitutional challenges during the appeals process will also be closely watched.
A former senior prosecutor said a swift judicial decision is in the public interest, ensuring that voters have a clear understanding of presidential candidates’ legal standing before the election. “The Constitutional Court will have to weigh various scenarios, given the broader political implications of its rulings,” he said.
