From its diplomacy with North Korea to its relationship with China, many of South Korea’s most pressing political issues could be affected by the upcoming midterm elections in the United States.
On Jan. 12, the Chosun Daily Newspaper held an Asian Leadership Conference webinar with three members of the Association of Former Members of Congress (FMC), a bipartisan alliance of former U.S. Congresspeople. The speakers — all former members of the U.S. House of Representatives — discussed the potential implications of the miderm elections on Korea and East Asia more broadly. The former congressmen included Lewis Payne, the president-elect of FMC and a Democrat who represented Virginia; John Faso, a Republican who represented New York; and Chang Joon Kim, a Republican who represented California. Woo Sang Kim, a political science professor at Yonsei University, moderated the webinar.
Democrats currently control both houses of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives, by slim margins. The midterm elections, to be held on Nov. 8, 2022, will determine whether Democrats retain that control or whether control shifts to Republicans in one or both houses.
Many of the biggest impacts of the elections on East Asia, the speakers agreed, would come from potential changes to America’s foreign policy.
Former Representative Faso said he hopes that if Republicans take control of one or both houses, Republicans and Democrats will be forced to negotiate on points where they disagree, such as their stances toward China.
Republicans like himself tend to have a tougher position toward China. If Republicans took control of one or both houses, the U.S.’s policies toward China could become more aggressive.
“China has been working very hard to assert itself across the globe, and we need to wake up to the facts of the matter,” Faso said. “We have to work very hard with South Korea on our defense, we have to deal with Taiwan, we have to deal with the fact that allies like Japan and South Korea need to be aligned.”
Former Representative Payne agreed that the U.S. must redefine its relationship with China as President Xi Jinping moves into a potential third term.
“I think the situation with China is not just one that Republicans are concerned about. We all, in the U.S.A., are thinking about the right way to move forward with China, and not have the old Cold War mentality, not be enemies,” Payne said. “How can we go forth in a world where there are two great powers, finding ways that we can move in the same direction in important issues, like climate change?”
Faso and Payne noted that it is important to think about the effects of any changes to the U.S.-China relationship on countries like Japan and South Korea, who are major trading partners of both nations.
The former congressmen also discussed the 2017 revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or Quad), a strategic security dialogue between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. The Quad is largely seen as a response to increasing Chinese economic and military power.
President Biden has recently suggested that the Republic of Korea join the Quad. But Professor Kim noted that if Korea joins, it would almost certainly face retaliation from China.
“If China retaliates, the U.S. should assist,” Payne said. “In 2017, with the Quad, many of the negative effects happened to South Korea rather than the U.S. The whole purpose of these relationships is to reap benefits, so when people retaliate, we should all pitch in and help.”
Faso made the observation that, in general, foreign policy tends to fall low on the list of Americans’ priorities unless it is in the headlines. “Americans don’t pay a whole lot of attention to foreign policy unless it’s a big problem,” he said.
But in terms of policies regarding both China and North Korea, he said he hopes that the midterm elections provide an opportunity for lawmakers to think about consistent and long-term foreign policy moves — not just reactions to urgent threats.
“China’s reach is long, and the only way the U.S. and its democratic allies can deal with this is to be firm, consistent, and present,” Faso said.
He also said something similar about the approach to dealing with North Korea.
Professor Kim mentioned that Republicans such as former national security advisor John Bolton have criticized what they see as Biden’s lack of action toward North Korea’s nuclear development. North Korea has been continuing to develop new weapons as negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, launching two missiles within the past week.
Republican lawmakers have also written to American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, saying they oppose a premature End-of-War Declaration between North and South Korea. Biden has reportedly been working together with the Republic of Korea on the potential content of such a declaration.
“I think [the End-of-War Declaration] is more form over substance,” Faso said. “The real issue is the degree to which we can maintain economic pressure [on the North] using carrots and sticks. We have to take a long-term view.”
A point of bipartisan agreement between Faso and Payne was their disappointment in the continuing absence of an American ambassador to Korea. Ambassadors to other U.S. allies in the Pacific such as Japan and Australia have already been nominated.
“Usually by this time, a president has two-thirds of all ambassadors confirmed and in-country. Now, it’s only 16%,” Payne said. “I think this gets back to politics, how people in the Senate are choosing to deal with these nominations. Whether it’s Democrats or Republicans, it’s crucial this be done, especially in Korea where we have so many important issues.”
“You’re right about the ambassador situation,” added Faso. “I’m going to make a few phone calls to some of my friends in Washington to get to the bottom of where this nomination is. I would like to see it done before the new president is elected in March.”